The 2025 holiday shopping season is set to see a record turnout of consumers, yet Americans are expected to curtail their spending as retailers offer fewer deep discounts due to sustained high prices and economic pressures.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), a staggering 186.9 million shoppers are projected to participate in the five-day shopping blitz between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—a new record. However, overall sales growth for the crucial November-December window is expected to slow compared to last year.
The Bargain Dilemma: High Prices & Reduced Promotions
Consumers are reporting significant sticker shock and budgeting changes driven by elevated costs for both necessities and discretionary items:
- Shrinking Budgets: Many consumers, like New Yorker Kate Sanner, are trimming their gift budgets significantly this year, opting for targeted deals over general Black Friday chaos.
- Fewer Deep Discounts: Experts who track holiday pricing, like Edgar Dworsky of Consumer World, note a decline in the aggressive “doorbuster” deals of the past, such as appliances available for under $10 after rebates. Retailers are seen offering fewer and shallower promotions, with discounts being more short-lived (“spot promotions”).
- Cautious Spending: While Bank of America data shows U.S. household balance sheets remain strong (with higher deposits than pre-pandemic levels), consumers are adopting a “sentimentally weak” stance and are reluctant to dip into savings for purchases.
đź›’ Retailers Start Early to Lock in Sales
Amid economic uncertainty and the desire to secure consumer dollars early, major retailers have launched pre-Black Friday deals and extended promotions:
- Early Access: Retail giants like Walmart and Amazon began their Black Friday promotions as early as mid-November, with Walmart segmenting its deals into three phases and offering early access to its Walmart+ members.
- Focus on Deals: While overall promotions are down, some retailers are still teasing aggressive cuts. For example, Walmart is featuring significant markdowns on big-ticket items like an 85-inch TCL Roku TV, priced at $498, down from $678.
Key NRF Projections:
| Metric | Projection | Comparison |
| Total Shoppers | 186.9 Million | Record turnout (up from 183.4M in 2024) |
| Sales Growth (Nov/Dec) | 3.7% to 4.2% | Slower pace than last year’s 4.8% gain |
| Average Spending | $890 per person | Slight decrease from $902 in 2024 |
